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Should I really be buying the bottom, or selling the high, here? – It’s all about the time… (again)

Those of you that have been following along on Twitter for some time will know I have done some work on stats like this in the past. As it’s a Sunday, early, still raining outside, and I was in a coding mood, I decided to review the data and add the stats to my OR indie (pjsOpeningRange) so that I can review it every day. It’s not that anything will really change from day to day, but it is a good reminder. A market brief, of sorts.

Anyway – The idea is simple. At what hour of the day does a high or low typically form. Is it randomly distributed? Well, the answer to this is an emphatic, No. I know this from prior research I have done.

Here is the output from the last 400 days, using the Nasdaq as the instrument. The times are all UK based. 14:30hrs is the open time for me (apart from that 2 weeks where we have the clocks change and everything is an hour off!)

So, as you can see from the above, random, it is not. Perhaps if you are trying to hold for a new high/low, or buy/sell the bottom/top, this might make you think about when you do it.

A little extra edge is all we often need. If you know there is a higher probability of letting that runner go to the close, that is good information to have, no?

Any study data shared on this site is subject to errors. Please do not blindly implement trading strategies based on the ideas presented here. The intent of sharing these studies is to perhaps spark something on your side. You should do your own research to verify those results. I don’t knowingly share inaccurate data, but I am only human and happy to be corrected if anyone can point out inaccuracies, etc. I am not obviously paid to do this work for you. I do it for myself, and occasionally, I share those results with my fellow traders. If my research leads you down a valuable path or saves you a lot of time, and you feel so inclined, you can buy me a coffee 😉

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